Unleashing the market: an estimation of Guarantees of Origin potential

In 2022, Guarantees of Origin (GOs) experienced a boom when prices rose from 1.7 EUR/MWh in January to an all-time high close to 10 EUR/MWh in late November. Then, the market stabilised. Demand remained high, and prices stayed well above historical levels. The GO market has reached a balance that has substantially increased its overall value.

This article argues that the revenue generated by Guarantees of Origin is not negligible and has the potential to funnel tens of billions of Euros to renewable electricity producers, significantly contributing to the EU’s clean electricity goals.

 In this report, we:

• Forecast the expansion of GO issuance towards 2030 based on EU targets.
• Calculate potential additional revenue for renewable energy producers generated by the GO market.
• Transform GO revenue into additional renewable electricity capacity.
• Explain how GO income can contribute to European renewable electricity targets.

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